Global change in flood and drought intensities under climate change in the 21st century

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences | Asadieh & Krakauer [2017]


Global warming is expected to intensify the Earth’s hydrological cycle and increase flood and drought risks. Changes in global high and low streamflow extremes over the 21st century under two warming scenarios are analyzed as indicators of hydrologic flood and drought intensity, using an ensemble of bias-corrected global climate model (GCM) fields fed into different global hydrological models (GHMs). Based on multi-model mean, approximately 37 % and 43 % of global land areas are exposed to increases in flood and drought intensities, respectively, by the end of the 21st century under RCP8.5 scenario. The average rates of increase in flood and drought intensities in those areas are projected to be 24.5 % and 51.5 %, respectively. Nearly 10 % of the global land areas are under the potential risk of simultaneous increase in both flood and drought intensities, with average rates of 10.1 % and 19.8 %, respectively; further, these regions tend to be highly populated parts of the globe, currently holding around 30 % of the world’s population (over 2.1 billion people). In a world more than 4 degrees warmer by the end of the 21st century compared to the pre-industrial era (RCP8.5 scenario), increases in flood and drought intensities are projected to be nearly twice as large as in a 2 degree warmer world (RCP2.6 scenario). Results also show that GHMs contribute to more uncertainties in streamflow changes than the GCMs. Under both forcing scenarios, there is high model agreement for significant increases in streamflow of the regions near and above the Arctic Circle, and consequent increases in the freshwater inflow to the Arctic Ocean, while subtropical arid areas experience reduction in streamflow.

Full text can be found here.



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